| Roland Garros last 16 predictions | ||||
|
 The tennis world is still asking the big question. WHO CAN BEAT RAFA?The world No.1 is a better player now than at any time during his first four visits to the French capital and, barring injury, it seems inevitable he will win his fifth consecutive Roland Garros crown next Sunday. If there are any doubters out there then check this stat out – Nadal has lost just one set out of the last 52 he has played at the French grand slam. Ridiculous. Let’s run through the last 16 line up. First up we’ve got Nadal playing Robin Soderling, and given what happened when they last met in Rome around a month ago when Rafa won 12 games in a row this will be another easy win for the Spaniard. So, will Rafa play Fernando Verdasco or Nikolay Davydenko in the quarters? Verdasco has had a great 2009 and has reached the last eight in all eight events he’s played this year, but I’m picking the Russian. Davydenko has won four out of their five meetings and is playing some great tennis again after missing the start of the year due to injury. Fernando Gonzalez has rediscovered the bravado that he had two years ago when he reached the final of the Australian Open in 2007 and he is my favourite to beat Victor Hanescu and then either Andy Murray or Marin Cilic to reach the semi-final to play Nadal. Murray’s movement on clay is getting better all the time. His ability to slide into his shots is improving with each match and he is currently enjoying his best run of form on clay. The Scot has the upper hand mentally at the crucial stages of matches against lower-ranked players and this helped him to recover in the third set against Potito Starace from 1-5 and also against Janko Tipsarevic when the Croat served for the first set of their third round contest on three occasions. However, the Brit still doesn’t move as well on the clay as he does on the other surfaces and finds it more difficult to play his brand of counter-attacking tennis. Cilic is a great ball striker with a great serve and he might just reach his first quarter-final. I see this 55-45 in Cilic’s favour. And so to the bottom half. The biggest shock of the tournament so far was Saturday’s defeat for fourth seed Novak Djokovic who lost in straight sets to the very talented German, Philipp Kohlschreiber. This opens it up for either Juan Martin Del Potro to reach his first grand slam semi-final or Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. All the slams benefit from their home players doing well and the French are blessed with two incredible personalities in Gael Monfils and Tsonga. Tsonga is a wild card when it comes to the big events and he could be the surprise package especially if the weather stays as it is and the conditions continue to suit his brand of attacking tennis. His personality reminds me so much of Yannick Noah who won in Paris back in 1983. With Djokovic losing, this increases the likelihood that it will again be Roger Federer who’ll go up against Nadal in the final. Federer had a slight scare against an inspired Jose Acasuso in the second round and it took him four sets to get past Paul Henri Mathieu in round three but the three-time finalist in Paris has reached the last 16 while conserving plenty of energy. Federer now plays Tommy Haas and then I expect him to play Monfils who will have too much for Roddick on the American’s least favourite surface. It’s difficult to pick the form player of the opening week in the women’s event. Jelena Jankovic, Svetlana Kuznetsova, Dinara Safina and Ana Ivanovic have all been impressive. Safina has only lost four games in her three matches and has been getting all the plaudits, but the Russian must win in Paris to really justify her spot at the top of the game. I don’t see anything stopping Safina from reaching the final. The other serious contenders to reach the final in the top half along with Safina are Azarenka and Ivanovic, who play each other in the last 16, and Maria Sharapova. Ivanovic, the defending champion, is showing signs that her form is returning and has looked very confident so far. On Sunday she plays Azarenka which will be the match of the day but whoever comes through that one, for me, won’t have enough to beat Safina in the quarters. The unseeded Sharapova is in a section of the draw that has really opened up after the withdrawal before the tournament started of Vera Zvonareva and the surprise defeat of Venus Williams on Friday. What a story it would be if, as looks likely, the Russian makes the semi-final after nine months away from the game! The women’s game will benefit hugely from having Sharapova back playing in the latter stages of the majors and it’s great that she hasn’t lost any of her fighting spirit in winning all her matches in three sets. My favourite at the beginning was Serena Williams and I really do see her repeating her only victory in Paris from 2002. In the bottom half the 10-time major winner has two obstacles in stopping her reaching the final – Jankovic and Kuznetsova. Serena has struggled for form in her opening three matches, but this is a regular occurrence for the American. The second seed has a champion’s mentality and has the knack of playing her best tennis at the business end of big events. |
Comments